Xi Jinping’s absence at the BRICS summit sparks speculation about China’s influence

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend this week’s BRICS summit In Brazil, It marks the first time that Chinese leaders have missed a gathering in major emerging economies. The sudden decision sparked widespread speculation about China’s internal political dynamics and the decline and cohesion of the BRICS countries themselves.

The official explanation from China is “arrangement conflict”, and Xi Jinping has met with Brazilian President Luis Nasio Lula da Silva earlier this year. Prime Minister Li Qiang will attend Xi Jinping’s summit, continuing the recent trend of XI shrinking his appearance on the global stage.

“That doesn’t make sense.” Gordon Zhangan expert in US-China relations. “There are many other countries at the BRICS summit, not only Brazil. It is very important for me that Xi Jinping is not moving forward. It shows turbulence at home – there are signs that he has lost control of the military and that civilian competitors have re-established their strength. It is a symptom.”

Putin of Russia presides over China’s XI in a large-scale military parade in Moscow held in Red Square

Bryan Burack of the Heritage Foundation agreed that Xi Jinping’s absence highlighted a deeper problem: “This is another sign that the BRICS countries will not be China’s exile to the global South.” He noted that countries like Brazil and Indonesia’s recent tariffs on China’s overproductive and dumping of industrial power, which indicates a widening of cracks within the group.

“China is actively damaging all these countries in most cases, perhaps with some exceptions, through its vicious trade policies, dumping and overcapacity.”

Tensions with India and global trade pressures may also be factors

Some analysts point to the rise China-India friction As a decisive factor in XI’s decision to skip the summit.

“Essentially, China has been warring India for decades,” Burack said. “These are fundamentally opposed interests. It’s hard to see China change its behavior in the near term, which will make tensions increasingly high.”

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a leading role in the gathering, which may be another deterrent force for Xi Jinping’s presence.

Another major leader – Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is only expected to speak via video.

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On the left, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are two main leaders of the BRICS Alliance. (Sergei Bobylev, Sputnik, Kremlin swimming pool photos via AP)

BRICS: Unification, split amid decades of tensions

Made of Brazil, Russia, India and China and later joined by South Africa, the BRICS countries are considered to be a non-Western confrontation with the G7 dominant position. It has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE and, more recently, Indonesia, strengthening its economic footprint.

Economist Christian Briggs highlighted the massive size of the BRICS countries: “Now, when calculating partners, the BRICS countries now include 12 full members, up to 23 members. Overall, they account for more than 60% of the global GDP and 75% of the global population. They control a wide range of natural resources and an increasing global trade flow.”

Despite its size, the group still has dispersion in its ideological and strategic direction. “This is a group of countries that hate each other,” Burack said bluntly. “China is hurting many of them through unfair trade practices. There is no much motivation for real solidarity.”

Currency ambitions and strategic differences

The alliance’s desire to challenge the dollar through alternative payment systems and potential BRICS currencies has gained media appeal – but experts warn against overestimating the threat.

“There are a lot of concerns about the currency of the BRICS countries,” Burack said. “But the interests of these countries are completely different. There is more smoke than fire when the currency challenges against the US dollar.”

Chang responded to this suspicion: “The only country that can challenge the dollar is the United States. The weakness of the dollar is due to what we do at home, not what the BRICS countries are doing.”

Nevertheless, Briggs offers an opposite that the BRICS has reshaped global currency flows.

“They moved from the US dollar to the digital yuan, rupee, ruble. China has launched a rapid alternative that the Caribbean banking industry has adopted – trillions of dollars are changing.”

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South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin took photos of family photos at the BRICS summit in Kazan on October 23, 2024. (Alexander Zemlianichenkopool/AFP via Getty Images)

Do the BRICS countries still pose a threat to the impact of the United States?

Although its cohesion remains questionable, the BRICS impact on the United States poses a long-term challenge, especially in areas where Washington is retreating diplomatically and economically.

“China fills the gap that the United States has left in places like Africa,” Briggs said. “Now, it controls 38% of the world’s minerals. Meanwhile, despite sanctions, Russia’s economy has doubled as they promote dependence on the dollar.”

However, Zhang sees India as any radical anti-Western tilt brake. “There is a ‘me’ in the BRICS – that’s India. Modi doesn’t want to be part of the anti-Western group. As long as India is in the BRICS, the rest of the world is safe.”

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to play a leading role in the summit, which may be another deterrent to Xi Jinping’s presence. (U.S. AP)

Missed opportunity – or calculated power movement?

For some people, XI’s non-display signal is in Beijing. For others, it is exactly the opposite: it shows confidence in China’s dominance over other BRICS members.

“He doesn’t have to be there,” Briggs said. “Xi Jinping’s power allows him to delegate. China is now trading with nearly 80% of the world. Even in absence, he is pushing the agenda forward.”

It is obvious that the BRICS countries continue to evolve – their internal contradictions are as obvious as their geopolitical ambitions. Whether XI’s absence marks a retreat or a recalibration remains one of the key issues hovering at the Brazilian summit.