Trump or without Trump, Europe and the United States will never recover | Nathalie Tocci

ITemporary or structural in the transatlantic rupture? yes Donald Trump Is the cause of the rift, or is the US president just a symptom of a potential trend? Optimists tend to hope that the stability we lose can be restored afterwards. I doubted this after spending the past few days in Washington.

Even in recent history, things have not been that bad for transatlantic relations. The current tensions make the first Trump administration look like a walk in a European park. This is one thing Withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreementTrump did this during his first term. This is another Bomb Iran And give Israel a war with the regime.

Threats to tariffs are one thing, and empty promises must be provided. Like Jean-Claude Juncker didbuy more American products. Swallowing 15% U.S. tariffs are another, leaving behind an incredible-looking Ursula von der Leyen, giving a silly smirking Trump a thumbs up next to the camera.

In terms of security cooperation, Trump sent at least anti-tank javelin missiles to Ukraine in his first term. Now, at best, he will allow the European government to purchase American weapons for Kyiv. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin rides the Russian dictator Gloats along the red carpet in Anchorage, Alaska.

Optimism can be a form of faith–even with all the evidence, persists in the belief that a good transatlantic era will come back.

This situation is delusional. Even if Trump disappears, it is difficult to see transatlantic relations recover to this common kinship for decades. As one Washington observer made for me, what we most hope is for a quarantine couple temporarily living under the same roof for the sake of the children, and then a friendly way to separate.

When Joe Biden was elected, I doubt he would be the last true Atlantic leader, whoever is next. I remember clearly that Biden evoked a crowd of transatlantic enthusiasts at the 2021 Munich Security Conference, announcing “The United States is back”. A little voice in my mind adds: “Probably the last time.” Security, population, social and economic forces in the United States and the wider world all oppose Biden’s commitment. Transatlantic relations are no longer considered based on shared value and identity.

Europeans understand this intellectually, but they strive to embrace reality emotionally. This explains the tendency to lie down and avoid scrambling Trump’s feathers in hopes that the past will magically recover.

This attitude is dangerous, as alternative results seem more likely – especially for both. Both of them take the deeper and more structured premise of transatlantic drifting than Trump himself. We are ultimately closer to the first or second situations depending on how Trump is behaving and also on how Europe reacts.

When their interests (how briefly) come together, the first one will see a deal between Europe and the United States. This will reduce relationships with convenient transactions, without emotional connections or long-term commitments for decades, but at least it will not be marked with a sense of hostility and hardship.

If Europe is in war and the United States can make money by selling its weapons to it, it would be happy to do so. But that won’t stop Washington from reaching a bilateral agreement with Ukrainians and Europeans. Accepting this rather dirty reality would mean Europe, like RussiaChina or India will cynically seek to extract as much profit as possible from the United States, realizing that this is the name of the game for everyone. Europeans will continue to buy American weapons for some time, but will use this time to develop strategic autonomy on the continent and invest in Ukrainian defense industry.

They will accept Trump’s tariffs in the short term, but by increasing scope, depth and pace of trade with others, from Latin American countries in Mercosur Bloc to India and the comprehensive and progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) of 12 people. In this case, Europe should also propose proposals to establish an alternative international trading system for the World Trade Organization without the United States. For Europe, this is not an ideal result, but something we can bear.

But there is another situation, which is even more ominous to Europe. This is an empire world, the United States, Russia, ChinaMaybe one day, everyone has their own area of ​​interest. Empires may end up in conflict, but at least at some point, they may overlap as well. They will do so according to short transactions rather than common rules and laws. Trump’s intuition tilted in this direction. He sees Europe as a colony, not dealing with it through blackmail, rather than tradingism.

Other possible empires may have different ideas about the future. Chinese President Xi Jinping is in love with Bikini and Narendra Modi in the direction of confrontation. Meanwhile, Trump’s myopia trade war severely weakened its partnership with India, pushing Delhi to Beijing’s knees. The world of empire will be the worst outcome for Europe, between the imperial ambitions of Russia and the United States, China waits on its wings.

Europe’s reaction to these emerging reality makes the chance of such dark outcomes more likely. European leaders have been promoting, pampering and acknowledging Trump for the past six months. To be sure, a small dose of diplomatic flattery is necessary and reflects relative negotiating capabilities. But we really don’t need to pose for sad thumbshots, send awkward Text messages before the NATO summit Or provide Gifted Gift and Royal Invitation.

All this self-wetting makes many European citizens cringe. It is unnecessary and at best win Trump’s fickle smile; worse, it backfires because it shows that Europe can indeed be colonized and accepts “fit for the best survival” as the way forward. Europeans must truly accept the past. Only in this way can they avoid the future, which will push them violently into the food chain.