Trump’s commitment to making a Renaissance in the United States makes experts scratch their heads | Trump tariffs

Administration officials say Donald Trump’s huge destructive trade war is laying the foundation for a creative revival in the United States. Outside the White House, many economists are skeptical.

Global trade experts point out that they believe the president’s tariffs will not achieve the realization of manufacturing, including: Trump’s unstable, ever-changing policies, his unfocused, comprehensive tariffs, and his method of replacing Joe Biden’s carrots and pasting to make the world’s branding.

“I think [Trump’s tariffs] “They will reduce the production costs of American manufacturing companies, which makes manufacturers less competitive,” said Michael Strain, an economist at the Conservative American Enterprise Institute (AEI). There will be some winners and some losers, but the losers will surpass the winners. ”

“Trump keeps changing his mind”

The president and his aides insist that tariffs on more than 100 countries, making goods imported from abroad more expensive, will stimulate domestic manufacturing. White House spokesman Kush Desai claim recent.

But few economists see this happening. Ann E Harrison, an economics professor at UC Berkeley and former dean of Haas Business School, said that unstable, as Trump’s tariffs are unstable, the ready-to-roll launch has spread across the president’s hope of inspiring huge manufacturing investments.

“In order for policy to be successful, it has to be consistent for a long time,” she told the Guardian. “People need to believe it will continue. Some factories take five years to plan and build. The long-term game you are talking about. But Trump has been changing his mind. Even in the past six months, we have very little consistency.

“The other problem is that he’s old and no one is sure he’ll be that long. These policies need to be consistent, and that’s not happening.”

Economists point to another problem mark, which leads business executives to think twice about building factories in the United States. In May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled Trump Blanket tariffs are illegal – Decision on appeal.

On the AEI, LL said on the AEI: “When you add the instability nature of President Trump’s tariff regime, when you add the question of its suspicious violations, when you add that when you add that it’s all in Congress, even when the United States ensures a “deal” with another country, it’s not a prominent issue, it’s a major issue.”

France noted that France does not believe its alcohol exports will be hit by tariffs, part of the EU’s agreement to pay 15% tariffs. “It’s a big question mark that can never be resolved in any conventional traditional trade agreement,” he said. “It’s part of the huge uncertainty we’re seeing.”

The Biden administration uses intentional industrial policies to promote multiple strategic industries, most notably semiconductors and electric vehicles, including 100% tariff on electric vehicles in China 25% of lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries, and subsidies for purchasing electric vehicles and building factories related to electric vehicles. Policy has led to a surge in new factories to build semiconductors, electric vehicles and electric vehicle components.

Biden “says we care about semiconductors and national security, and what he’s trying to do is get actual investors to invest in it,” said Dani Rodrik, an economist specializing in Harvard’s Kennedy administration’s trade and industrial policy, who predicts Trump’s blanket tariffs will have less success in inspiring investments. “If you really want to increase manufacturing and employment in the U.S., you will do it in a very different way by first identifying industrial policies in the specific segments you care about.”

When China, Japan and South Korea have adopted policies for the electronics and automotive industries, they insist that companies that benefit from these policies compete with foreign companies to help make them globally competitive. “In order for industrial policy to succeed, it must work to promote more competition,” said Harrison of Haas Business School. “The problem with tariffs is that they are in the opposite situation. They limit competition.”

Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University, who works in industrial policies for the Biden and Obama administrations, said Trump’s tariff rates in certain countries and markets (such as 15% in the EU, Japan and South Korea) are too low to stimulate investment, questioning why a company will build a large factory to support such responsibility.

“one [semiconductor fabrication] Plant, that’s a billion dollars. You need to get rewards, which takes several years. “If the tariff is 145% [as Trump once imposed on China]which is very attractive for building plants. However, if they drop to 15%, it will be difficult to get your return on investment. ”

The government believes that several of its trade agreements have specific commitments to stimulate huge manufacturing investments. It says deals with the EU include $60 billion investment commitment;With Japan55 billion investment commitment;and with South Korea $35 billion. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Written in the New York Times: “These investments – the inflation-adjusted value of the Marshall Plan to rebuild Europe after World War II – will accelerate the reindustrialization of the United States.”

But these so-called promises have aroused doubts. After all, the president claimed in his first term that the “Eighth Miracle of the World” was built in Wisconsin Foxconn promises $10 billion investment and create 13,000 jobs in the electronics factory. But that hope Falling down awkwardly.

Many economists question whether the EU, Japan or South Korea can force companies to make specific investments in the United States. Indeed, one A spokesman for the European Commission said The group expressed the “overall intention” of “never” combining. “These big numbers do sound like window pressing, they’re throwing some circular numbers,” said Rodrik of Harvard.

“Some include the investments you already have, some include aspiring investments,” said Todd Tucker, a trade and industrial policy expert at the Roosevelt Institute. “Once we have time to evaluate whether the investment is happening, Trump will enter the next news cycle.”

Manufacturing employment has been declining in recent years – not only in high-level industrial countries, but in China, as new technologies enable factories to manufacture goods with less labor efficiency. This trend raises questions about whether Trump’s trade policy can increase factory work in the United States.

“Backland Island”

Berkeley’s Harrison pointed out that the United States has surpassed its manufacturing peak. “It’s actually during World War II and has been declining since then,” she said. “I don’t see a share of manufacturing in the economy or a reversal of manufacturing jobs.”

She added: “If the question is, whether you are going to cause a major revival of manufacturing employment, it is not only impossible, but the answer is no. More and more manufacturing industries are driven by robots, not done by people.”

U.S. auto industry officials complain that Trump’s 50% tariff on steel and aluminum increased costs and hurt their competitiveness. “In manufacturing, for every job in steel production, there are 80 jobs using steel,” said the pressure from AEI. “So it may help to impose tariffs on imported steel, but you are hurting 80 other people.”

A study by Fed economists found that Trump’s tariffs during his first term were actually the same as Reduce factory work Nationwide, as increased input costs and retaliatory tariffs exceed import protections for tariffs.

Helper at Case Western Reserve University warned that Trump’s tariffs are not up to date and his cuts to electric vehicles will suffer serious damage. “Trump’s policy makes the automotive industry a lagging island,” she said. “The rest of the world will make electric cars, but we will focus on getting high profits on pickup trucks, which is bad for the climate and will not be sold in the rest of the world.

“We will have a great competitive position in large, gas pickups, but we will be further behind in electric cars. It’s a very risky and dangerous path.”