What can end the war in Ukraine?

This week, Russia launched one of the largest ongoing attacks on Ukraine since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of the country in 2022. President Donald Trump threatened to wash away the conflict’s hands, an attack made up of missiles and drones. Recently, Trump has been upset by Putin’s unwillingness to reach a deal to end the war, accusing the Russian president of “playing with fire.” But Trump continues to boycott increased sanctions on Russia, or send new military aid to Ukraine. European leaders who are more supportive of Ukraine urged a ceasefire, but Russia refused to agree to a thirty-day pause. With Putin’s military advancement on the battlefield and U.S. aid dry up, Russian leaders may not have any advantage in retreating.

What would Russia and Ukraine look like if they eventually return to negotiations? To talk about this, I recently had a phone conversation with Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and it was also “Host the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bidding Global Power. “Radchenko, who wrote with Samuel Charap, published couple of article exist diplomatic Over the past fourteen months, there have been some reasons for the failure of peace talks before and how they will succeed in the future. In our conversation, edited for long and clarity, we discuss why Trump’s desire to make a deal immediately could lift Putin out of a solution, whether earlier negotiations between Russia and Ukraine actually have a chance to succeed, and the months of the past few months reveal Putin’s willingness to finally compromise.

Trump has been in office for more than four months now. His reward tells us about the Ukrainian war and the actors involved?

I don’t think we know much about war. But we’ve learned about what Trump wants to accomplish, and we’ve probably learned why he can’t do the job. Trump takes office and hopes he can end the war immediately. I think he overlooked the complexity of the conflict. He was appointed as the Ukrainian portfolio guy – especially like Steve Witkoff, accused of negotiating with the Russians – without the need for experience to understand the underlying issues, which is why I think Trump was surprised in the end. He didn’t expect the negotiations to be so difficult. In addition, Trump is very impatient and Putin is playing a long game. This is the main reason why negotiations have become so protracted. I find it surprising that Trump once thought it would be different.

I might also be naive because my thought when Trump took office was that this was actually a good time to negotiate. It is not a negotiation that is favorable to Ukraine, but a negotiation. Trump made it clear that U.S. support is drying up, and Trump is very anxious about the deal with Putin. I think, Oh, Putin will get the deal he wants. So it seems Putin is so resistant that I am surprised. What am I missing?

Putin is interested in building a better relationship with the United States, but there is no price. He hopes Trump will help him get there by wrapping his arms against Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to a condition that Zelensky would never agree to. Trump is indeed in negotiation mode. He obviously doesn’t like Zelensky for a number of reasons, but he doesn’t want to be said by public opinion: “Trump is basically just doing Putin’s bid, and he just sold Ukraine and he’s not getting anything rewarded.”

So Putin hopes he might get more from Trump. I don’t know how much he expects in this regard, but most importantly, his goal is what he wants to achieve in Ukraine, which is related to Ukraine’s non-aligned status and demilitarization. He also wants to control the territory he has annexed but not yet fully controlled and to provide protection for Russian speakers and Russian Orthodox churches in Ukraine. But Putin can still last for a long time to see if he can bargain.

Do you think the reason Putin can persist is that war is better for him?

There are two reasons: First, when you negotiate with someone who is desperate to reach an agreement, you feel like you will stand up effectively to get better conditions by waiting. Imagine if you are in a situation where you are selling a home and are dealing with a buyer who is absolutely eager to buy and will do everything you can to give you the best conditions. You can try to extract more by sticking out. Now, of course, there is a possible downside to this strategy, which is that Trump repeatedly stated that he might walk away or impose new sanctions. But Putin believes that the sanctions that can be imposed may not be particularly dangerous.

Maybe they won’t impose it at all.

Maybe they won’t impose it at all. The meaning of Trump by “walk away” is also not clear. It’s very interesting to watch the Kremlin react to Trump’s threat, saying he’s getting too excited, or he’s not getting enough information, or he should be more patient, and so on – you might talk about a child or a very incompetent person. Frankly, maybe they are right.

What I want to say. . .

Then, another aspect you mentioned is that Putin feels he is military-spirited. The war has not made much progress in three years, but the Russians have been making some progress in recent months. So the longer you wait, the better your chances are, because you will get more territory before the ceasefire.

Let’s move to the negotiations held in Istanbul in 2022, because one of your works is Called “The negotiations to end the Ukrainian war may end.” But, reading it, I’m not sure if you really think, or readers should think of it. What are their negotiations and how close are they to success?

The title will never be chosen by the author. If you read the actual article, it’s more about trying to understand the negotiations. The two sides tried to reach a consensus on many issues related to Ukraine’s permanent neutrality. So one of the things we do in the article is trying to understand the main issues of the disagreement. It is very clear that there is a discussion on security assurances that will be provided to Ukraine, but they never agreed to provide a mechanism for assurances as the Russians attempt to introduce the ability to veto them. This is an interesting element because if you want to really make a real deal, you probably won’t want to introduce clauses (that’s what the Russians do at the last minute) to try to kill Ukraine to get its security guarantees. So, this is one thing, but that doesn’t mean it’s a negotiating position that can never be changed in the future. We don’t know if the Russians will stick to this.

You clearly show in the article that the negotiation was not successful. You wrote: “Both sides skip the fundamental issues of conflict management and mitigation (the creation of humanitarian corridors, ceasefires, withdrawals of troops) and instead try to create something like a long-term peace treaty that will resolve security disputes that have been geopolitical tensions for decades. It is an admirable effort.