A simple regime change in Tehran is a good idea. But look at history: It’s almost impossible | Martin Kettle

oOn the eve of the 1991 Gulf War, a TV reporter asked U.S. commander Norman Schwarzkopf if he would overthrow Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. Stormin’Norman answered With memorable simplicity: “Speak easily.

Schwarzkopf knew what he was talking about. The General was a lifelong student in the Middle East – he spent some childhood in Tehran and was military history. Indeed, he successfully carried out a successful Earth strategy in the way Saddam failed in Kuwait, consciously establishing a counterfeit with the flanking strategy of Carthage commander Hannibal defeating the Romans in Cannae in 216 BC.

The regime changes are now being mentioned more and more Iranis a high-risk manifestation of a “easy to talk, hard things” policy. Without it as Tehran has, the world would obviously be a better place. However, there is no lever that can be easily pulled, and no button pressing, which can instantly replace lasting tyranny with lasting happiness. Destruction is different from reconstruction.

Instead, the change of regime is a phrase that often obscures many lasting troubles and pains, and most people suffer from severe pain from the ordinary people whose regime has changed. In the West, modern government and its public have to learn this in a difficult way. A few years later, the Afghan invasion in 2001 and the Iraq War in 2003 still plague our politics. The so-called chaos result Arab Spring on November 2010 It is a really grim monument on the same day.

However, it is hoped that the Iranian theocratic regime is right behind it. Iran is one of the most repressive countries in the world. Arrest and trial are arbitrary. Torture, including whipping and amputationis local. Execution is common. Oppression of womenethnic minorities and immigration are institutionalized. Political activity and free expression are almost impossible.

The malice of the regime is not just the Iranians’ feelings. The Islamic Republic has exported its authoritarianism over the years through the agents of Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now through the provision of Russia in Ukraine. It has funded and supported terrorism in the West. Its desire for nuclear weapons, it will threaten IsraelThe destruction it seeks is ruthless.

So, if the opportunity arises, why not try to replace such a regime? What is what is when it overthrew its overthrow, especially at the moment when Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, military is military and the state is feeling the impact of international sanctions? Benjamin Netanyahu Israel’s slamming of Iran seems to be done Major damage The regime’s nuclear and military infrastructure and has been limited in Iran’s ability to retaliate and defend itself. So if not now, when?

The temptation is very real. In politics, just like in war, the courage to seize this moment may be decisive. Bismarck believes this is one of the ultimate tests for leadership and he has proven to be a major practitioner. Shakespeare made the same point in Julius Caesar, when Cassius was told: “There are trends in human affairs/the trends brought in the flood that lead to wealth.” But remember what happened to Cassius in the end. He lost.

Even so, the overthrow of the Iranian regime will eliminate international threats – especially to Israel, but also to countries that subvert and undermine Iranian agents. Nuclear proliferation will return to its original state. The threat of terrorism will be disturbed. This will be bad news for Russia, and Russia is in a lot of Iran war materialsincluding drones. This will be hope for Ukraine. The world’s transportation and commerce mitigation will be enormous. The price of goods may be greatly reduced.

Therefore, it is incorrect to approve these arguments, especially if the main reason for this is that Netanyahu is hitting the ball, or because Israel’s fierce attack in Gaza is terrible, although these are undoubtedly terrible. Opposing changes in the Iranian regime is simply because policies may eventually be accepted, which is also short-sighted Donald Trump’s Unpredictable White House. Therefore, Trump’s enemies are not our friends.

However, there are more serious and considerable reasons for caution. First of all, regime destruction does not mean successful regime change. Israel with or without Trump’s direct military support could cause enough damage to Iran to prevent the regime from functioning. But what happens next? Neither Israel nor the United States intend to occupy Iran’s defeated Iran. The horrible lessons in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya are still vivid. This is not Berlin in 1945.

Netanyahu said in a broadcast to Iran this week that Iranians should shape the new Iran. He told them: “We are cleaning up your path toward your goal, and that’s freedom.” However, there is no presumed Iranian government waiting on the wings. The Israeli-promoted regime will certainly work to survive. By supporters of the United States, people who allow Trump and his allies to plunder and enrich themselves at Iran’s expenses would do better. Opposition to the theocracy states may indeed be as common as 80% Netanyahu claimsbut at this point it is underground, initial and split.

The defeated Iran will be a weak, but still very large, proud and important state. It will have abundant natural resources, energy superpowers, and still well-armed. Its racial and religious combination will seize the opportunity to claim its rights and claims. However, advocates and clinics of ancient regimes would be everywhere in the armed forces and police. These are exactly the components that may indicate the explosion of citizen instability that may have lasted for years.

Don’t forget, Iran is still a revolutionary regime. Like the Islamists in 1979, rulers who took power by completely overthrowing their predecessors could become paranoid regimes. They may never surrender because Ayatollah Khamenei Stick to yesterday. But a weak and angry Islamic Republic may seem like a replacement result.

History tells us that the regime change of the revolutionary regime is a particularly chaotic business. First, overthrowing the regime can be difficult to establish. However, it is not easy for people who replace them. It is believed that France was in 1815 or 1991 Russia. Germany was rescued from the abyss of Nazism only through a combination of clear international agreements with German institutions, U.S. economic aid, military occupation and pragmatic compromise. The result is a collective victory. However, this is an extremely rare event. There is nothing on the Iranian card. Be careful what you want.