Home World What are the risks at the Trump-Pudin Ukraine Peace Summit? |Donald Trump

What are the risks at the Trump-Pudin Ukraine Peace Summit? |Donald Trump

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  • 1. territory

    After more than three years of fighting, Russia occupied one-fifth of Ukraine, but continued to demand land. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia wanted the rest of Donetsk, covering an area of 9,000 square kilometers in exchange for a ceasefire. Zelenskyy said Ukraine disagrees, especially because the rate of return is small. Ukrainian public is unlikely to accept the transfer of more land to invaders.

    Kiev is willing to accept the ceasefire on the current front, and will then discuss the future status of the occupied territories. This is a particularly sensitive issue. Russia has sought formal recognition of at least some of the territories it occupied, most notably Crimea, but at best it is only Ukraine that it is possible to accept the de facto occupation. Another option is that John Foreman, a former British Defense Ministry dependent, suggested that the status of the occupied territory be stopped in future negotiations – “in 25 years.”


  • 2. Safety assurance

    Russia said it hopes Ukraine is neutral, although in reality it means a weak neighbor has nothing to do with the West. In previous negotiations still mentioned by the Kremlin, it demanded the reduction of the army in Kiev to a symbolic 50,000. It also asked the country to “reside” and was interpreted as a call for a replacement of Zelenskyy.

    Ukraine wants to join NATO, although this has been rejected by the United States, which has led it to seek bilateral or multilateral security assurances from Western allies. Britain and France have promised to lead a “reliance force” mainly Europe, which will enter Ukraine under a stable ceasefire, although Russia opposes that.

    On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Trump said the United States is also ready to be part of security assurances to prevent the war from breaking out again. It is unclear what Trump is preparing to offer, and bilateral guarantees in Japanese or Korean styles look unlikely. Meanwhile, unless Russia is ready to accept that Ukraine can determine its own security arrangements, the progress of agreeing to it seems impossible.


  • 3. Sanctions and Trade

    Russia hopes that the economic sanctions imposed on Moscow will be lifted. But Trump can only speak for the United States. Possibly more hostile to the UK and the EUunless Ukraine has signed a total peace agreement. The Kremlin also wants to develop further, and today Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said that as part of the proposed arrangement between the two countries, leaders will discuss broader cooperation, including in the trade and economic sectors. There will be no obvious progress on other topics, and the unilateral easing of the U.S. sanctions will be surprising.


  • 4. War crimes, compensation and reconstruction

    War crimes and compensation claims cannot be put on hold as part of a peace agreement. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has arrest warrant against Putin Transfer about 20,000 children from Ukraine to Russia. Zelenskyy demands return to young people in the first phase of any peace discussion, but the demand from the ICC will not disappear. Ukraine’s human rights lawyer Wayne Jordash said Ukraine has an obligation to investigate war crimes and crimes against humanity”.

    The World Bank estimates that the total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine (already carried out in most wars) totals 50.6 billion euros (£4.35 billion). Following the resolution of the United Nations General Assembly, the European Commission has established a register of compensation claims to record eligible compensation claims. But, so far, Russia has refused to help rebuild funds, making Ukraine look for alternative ways to post-war reconstruction. One option is to grab Russian assets held abroad, totaling around $280 billion (£20.7 billion), but reaching an international consensus on seizures is difficult.


  • 5. Other questions

    There are many other practical problems. Ukraine called for the release of all prisoners of war along with the initial ceasefire. Russia has more than 8,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war and the smaller number of Ukraine, which makes one-to-one swap tricky. But there is Dozens of exchanges since the beginning of the warthis may be one of the simpler questions to agree with.

    In the early days of the war, Russia captured it Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plantthe largest in Europe. It was closed shortly after it was closed, but the site was still on Russian-controlled territory, and there were signs that Russia wanted to restart and connect it to the country’s energy grid, a forced transfer that Ukraine would not recognize but could do nothing.

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