Who are the winners and losers in the US EU trade agreement?

After Scotland’s talks, the United States and the European Union have called it the largest trade deal in history.

It is actually similar to the framework of an agreement, rather than a comprehensive trade agreement, and the details are still unclear.

However, the title figures announced by President Donald Trump and EU Chief Ursula von Leyen do provide clues about which departments and groups may be hit the most or gained the most.

Trump has just landed in the biggest trade after pledging to reach new trade deals with dozens of countries.

In the eyes of most commentators, the EU has abandoned more, and instant analysis of capital economics shows that GDP has hit 0.5%.

Billions of dollars will also pour into the U.S. import tax.

But if a large amount of economic data that expires later this week suggests that his reshaping of the U.S. economy is fighting back, Trump’s shiny headlines may not last long.

Data on inflation, employment, growth and consumer confidence will be a clearer understanding of whether Trump’s tariffs are suffering or gained.

The average American has increased the cost of living, and the deal could increase the burden on EU goods prices.

While not as steep as it could have been, the barrier represented by 15% tariffs is still large and much more obvious than the barriers that existed before Trump returned to the office.

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods purchased from other countries. Often, they are a percentage of the value of the product. So the 15% tariff means that $100 products imported from the EU to the US will add $15 to the highest price – reducing the total cost of importers to $115.

Companies that bring foreign goods to the United States must pay taxes to the government and often give some or all additional fees to customers.

Stock markets in Asia and Europe rose after the press release of the trading framework.

Under the framework, the United States will impose a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU. Despite this speed, it is less than the original proportion, at least providing certainty for investors.

Chris Weston of Australian broker Pepperstone told AFP the deal was “apparently market-friendly and should give further upside potential for the euro”.

The transaction will need to be signed by all 27 members of the EU, each with a different interest and degree of dependence on exports to the United States.

Although some members gave the agreement a prudent welcome, others were crucial – suggesting a division within the group, which also attempted to deal with other crises, such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou commented: “It was a dark day, a coalition of a liberal nation gathered together to affirm their shared values and defend their common interests, resigned to submit.”

He has joined at least two other French government ministers and Hungarian leader Viktor Orban, who said Trump “had breakfast.”

Importers who brought EU cars to the U.S. faced nearly half of tariffs, with Trump levied a 27.5% tax rate to a new 15% in April.

Automobile is one of the EU’s highest exports to the United States. As the largest automaker in the EU – thanks to Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW – Germany will keep watching closely.

Its leader Friedrich Merz welcomed the new agreement while acknowledging that he would welcome “further relaxation of transatlantic trade.”

The German auto manufacturing trade agency VDA responded to the unfavorable sentiment, the man warned that even a 15% rate would “lose billions of dollars in the German auto industry each year.”

Trump is trying to increase automobile production in the United States. U.S. automakers were boosted when they learned that the EU had lowered their tariffs on U.S.-made cars from 10% to 2.5%. In theory, this could lead to buying more American cars in Europe.

This may be good for our sales overseas, but the agreement is not good news when it comes to domestic sales. It depends on the complex way American cars are.

Many of them were actually assembled in Canada and Mexico, and when they were brought to the United States, Trump imposed a 25% tariff. In contrast, EU vehicles are lower in tariff rates. Therefore, U.S. automakers may now worry about weakening European manufacturers.

The chaos of tariffs on European drugs purchased in the United States will be imposed on drug prices. The EU hopes that drugs will be subject to minimum interest rates to benefit sales.

Trump said the deal announced Sunday did not cover drugs, and according to the deal, interest rates for many products were reduced to 15%. But Von der Leyen said they were included, a White House source confirmed to the BBC.

Both situations will be disappointed with European pharmaceutical companies, which initially hope to completely exempt tariffs. The industry currently enjoys high risks in the U.S. market due to products such as Ozempic (Denmark-made Star Type-2 diabetes drug).

This was highlighted in Ireland, with the opposition pointing out the importance of the industry and criticizing the destructive effects of uncertainty.

Trump said the EU will also purchase US$7.5 billion (£55.8 billion, €63.8 billion) of U.S. energy companies, and overall investment in the U.S. increased by $60 billion.

“We will replace Russian gas and oil by buying large quantities of US LNG [liquified natural gas]oil and nuclear fuel,” von der Leyen said.

This will deepen the link between European energy security and the United States, as it has been away from importing Russian gas since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Von der Leyen said certain “strategic products” would not attract any tariffs, including aircraft and aircraft parts, certain chemicals and certain agricultural products.

This means that companies that make components for aircraft will engage in frictionless trade between large trading groups.

She added that the EU still hopes to get more “zero zero” deals in the coming days, especially wines and spirits.