Why Trump targets Brazil

U.S. President Donald Trump’s message on Wednesday landed like a grenade in Brazil, bringing relations between the two countries to an all-time low.

Trump has promised to impose tariffs on Brazil at a rate of up to 50%. He accused the country of “attacks” on American tech companies and conducted a “witch hunt” on former far-right president Jair Bolsonaro.

The move comes after a brand new political quarrel between Trump and current Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva. It further tensed up the already tense relationship.

Trump earlier threatened members of the BRICS group – Brazil is part – about the taxes, accusing countries that had anti-U.S. positions.

The group includes India, Russia and China and has grown to include Iran. It aims to offset the U.S. influence on the world.

Lula answered Trump’s tariff threat in an article on X, writing: “Brazil is a sovereign state with independent institutions and will not accept any kind of guidance”.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has released a wide range of tariff plans or import taxes. He believes that while he also uses them to pursue political purposes, these will promote our manufacturing and conservation efforts.

The same is true in Brazil.

The Lula administration said it would pay back – which could mean equal tariffs on U.S. products. However, it is not clear how this will happen or whether Brazil has economic influence to face the consequences of escalation.

Meanwhile, many Brazilians are asking why Trump is targeting his country and how this new legendary performance works.

Brazil is one of the few countries that buy from the United States, and this is a theoretically suited to Trump’s trade agenda.

Given this imbalance, many Brazilian analysts and politicians see the tariff threat as an open gesture to Jair Bolsonaro.

This was highlighted by a letter from Trump, which strongly criticized the ongoing trials by the Brazilian government and Bolsenro in the Supreme Court, centered on alleged coup attempts two years ago.

Brazilian politicians have already expected some kind of aid from Trump, but that is not the case.

On January 8, 2023, hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters attacked Brazil’s parliament, the Supreme Court and the Palace of the President – apparently trying to overturn the election that Lula won a few months ago.

Bolsonaro denied any connection to the incident, and many were seen by many as attacks on the U.S. Capitol building by Trump supporters two years ago. Trump was also investigated after the riots in the United States – condemning those who tried to prosecute him.

Bolsonaro supporters have been asking for some kind of Trump support for months. His son Eduardo left the Brazilian Congress, where he served as a representative and moved to the United States. He is a regular at Mar-A-Lago, whose goal is to support his father from Trump’s inner circle and the broader magazine (making America great again) movement.

Trump, in another part of his letter, was seen as a firm supporter of Bolsenalo’s staunch support, accusing the Brazilian government of “sincere attacks on free elections and Americans’ fundamental right to free speech”, including censorship of the “American social media platform.”

As part of an ongoing investigation into the spread of false information in the country, the Brazilian Supreme Court has ordered the blocking of several social media accounts in recent years – many of them belong to supporters of Bolsenro.

Brazilian authorities and businesses are striving to calculate the economic impact of potential tariffs, but the political consequences can also be huge.

Trump’s words show that Bolsonaro is politically distanced from the U.S. president, that is, there are few Brazilian or Latin American politicians who can dream of it.

The letter will be seen as a strong endorsement of Bolsonaro, who hopes to run for president again – although it is banned from doing so until 2030 by the country’s Supreme Election Court.

The former president’s supporter has gained political capital for threatening tariffs, which shows that the responsibility lies firmly in the current President Lula.

“Lula puts ideology ahead of economics, and that’s the result. The responsibility is in power. The narrative will not solve this problem,” said São Paulo Governor Tarcísio De Freitas.

However, some analysts and politicians say Trump’s gestures may backfire over time.

The United States is Brazil’s second most important trading partner, second only to China.

Those who are closely aligned with Bolsonaro’s political foundations, especially agribusiness, may be the most affected sectors of the new round of U.S. tariffs. There are growing concerns about the potential impact of Brazil’s export of orange, coffee and beef.

Trump’s tariff threat is no longer Lula’s lifeline, not playing on Lula’s lifeline, who has been working hard to deal with Congress.

A poll released in May showed that 55% of Brazilians disapprove of Trump. A new wave of tariffs is unlikely to change that sentiment.

After Trump announced the news, Lula and other members of the Brazilian left responded by playing a nationalist tune – talking about sovereignty and trying to blame Bolsonaro for the economic consequences of the tariffs.

However, among centrist politicians, the response to the Trump threat is largely negative.

“No citizens, especially elected representatives of the people, can tolerate foreign aggression against Brazil regardless of alleged reasons. This is the time for true patriotism.”

Some analysts believe this may have a rallying effect on Lula, who desperately needs a political uplift.

“Even Lula’s critics may see Trump’s move as an attack on national sovereignty and independence of the judiciary,” said Oliver Stunikel, a professor at the Gertrorio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and a professor at the Carnegie Endowment Foundation of Carnegie International Peace Think Tank.

Brazil still has some way to go in the October 2026 presidential election, but some analysts are already comparing with Canada, where a right-wing candidate who initially compared with Trump lost comparison this year to a more central opponent who openly opposes the open campaign of the U.S. leader.

Since Bolsonaro himself is unable to run, allies are already controversial about which candidate represents Brazilian rights.

On social media – where many political debates happened – the memes of thousands of candidates were shared by thousands of candidates on Thursday, often associated with Trump’s actions.

One man wears a Trump Maga hat to Tarcísio, governor of Sao Paulo and the possible candidate.

With the threat of tariffs, Trump has created not only a potential storm for Brazil’s economy, but also a political future.