In this era, the ongoing challenges of predicting extreme weather Climate crisis In a catastrophic Mountain torrent In the “mountain” area Texas.
As of early Sunday, hundreds of rescue workers were looking for at least 12 people as the rainfall is still gradually disappearing in the rain outside of San Antonio and Austin. Hundreds have been removed from the flood that killed nearly 70 people so far, many of which are a summer camp along the Guadalupe River.
July is the peak flood season in the United States and the Central Texas It is known as the “From Torrent Lane” because tropical moisture and the necessary ingredients of slow-moving storms are often there on hilly terrain. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters warn that more floods may occur this weekend and next week.
The scale of the latest climate disaster was obvious on Saturday Drone lens The filmed Saturday morning was that the entire community was flooded and the rapids were played through the town streets. The story of survival and heartbreak Very rich.
The preliminary analysis of downpour and the forecaster’s decision led to the guardian’s analysis on them, showing that rainfall of this scale is extremely rare and unpredictable even for this flood-prone area.
A total of more than 10 inches (25 cm) of rain on Friday could occur within three hours Only in “typical” 500 years of “typical” For Kerrville, Texas – three months of rainfall in just a few hours. Radar data Prove that in Friday’s rain, it’s over 4 inches per hour. Rainfall intensity exceeds Similar mountain torrents in 1987 This also caused a tragedy due to campers along Guadalupe.
The total amount of rainfall on Saturday actually exceeded that of a region north of Friday’s peak rainfall. Nearly 14 inches of rain fell within five hours west of Austin, Texas – only once expected Nearly 1,000 years Given a stable climate.
although Funding cuts and widespread staff shortages Depend on Trump administrationNWS forecasters at the NWS local San Angelo office and the NWS National Professional Center provided a range of watches and warnings in the days and hours before Friday’s flood disaster.
San Angelo’s forecast office has two vacancies – typical of the Trump era, rather than the current NWS staff shortage – and has not encountered any missteps in weather balloon data collection that has plagued other offices.
In fact, Weather balloon data Gathering from Del Rio on Thursday showed record moisture in the high-rise atmosphere in central Texas and boosted confidence in severe flash flooding. Del Rio’s office then begins releasing a series of flood watches Starting Thursday afternoon This warns the area to prepare for “5 to 7 inches of rain” in preparation for “excessive runoff”.
The NWS Weather Forecast Center in University Park, Maryland has also released a series of Mesoscale precipitation discussion On Thursday – Highly detailed advance payments from other weather forecasters may occur with particularly rare events. In one of the discussions, forecasters noted that central Texas moisture content was “higher than the 99th climate percentile” – far beyond the normal and clues, which is possible historic flooding.
In the final upgrade, the NWS office in San Angelo released Flash torrent emergency situation About an hour before the water begins to rise rapidly Recent American Geological Survey River Monitoring Table. The flash flood emergency is the highest flood warning available in the northwest, enough Start the wireless emergency alarm systemwhich will trigger cell phone alerts in the area.
The National Meteorological Administration has released Dozens of other flash flood warnings All day after the second extreme rain, Friday and Saturday, in the early morning, the range of floods exacerbated the range of floods.
Despite the timely release of watches and warnings throughout the disaster – a comparison with what local officials said in a press conference, the amount of rainfall specified in the first flash flood surveillance was about half the final fall.
Current weather forecasting techniques are able to know that rainfall in the past day may occur somewhere in a given area, but knowing exactly how much and which portion of the hilly terrain of a particular river drainage basin makes predictions of floods more difficult – similar to predicting which community tornadoes may erupt one day ahead of schedule. Donald Trump’s staff layoffs specifically hit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Environmental Modeling Centerdesigned to improve these types of skills Tough predictions.
While it is not clear that the staffing shortage of NWS complicates advance notices of flood disasters local officials, it is clear that this is a complex, complex tragedy that makes climate warmer more frequent.
Rain intensity in central Texas has been rising for decades, while residues from tropical storm Barry added to this week’s rainfall, which landed in northern Mexico last week. Barry’s cycle draws record atmospheric moisture from nearly record-breaking waters in the Gulf of Mexico to Central Texas.
The mix of cycles and warming in Barry helps create Record atmospheric moisture content In Central Texas – with Increase the moisture content of the atmosphere The world is warm and the air can hold more water vapor.
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