Trump claims Chicago is “the most dangerous city in the world.” Four of the most violent are in red | American Crime

As Donald Trump Threats to deploy National Guard units to Chicago and Baltimore, ostensibly to quell violence, this pattern has emerged The city he talks about.

Chicago, Philadelphia, Washington, DC and Baltimore.

But not Jackson, Birmingham, St. Louis or Memphis.

An analysis of crime trends over the past four years shows two things. First, violent crime rates have been declining in major U.S. cities over the past two years and have also been higher in the past six months. reduce Violence in the United States is unprecedented.

Second, in states with democratic leadership, crime is lower in big cities. But the president is almost focused on the big blue Blue city The country, avoid political conflicts with the red Republican governor.

Four cities with the highest murder rate in 2024 have more than 100,000 people, in Republican states: Jackson, Mississippi (78.7 per 100,000 residents), Birmingham, Alabama (58.8), St. Louis, Missouri (54.1), and Memphis, Tennessee (40.6).

On Tuesday, Trump called Chicago “the most dangerous city in the world” and promised to send troops there, and Baltimore. “I have an obligation. It’s not a political matter,” he said in a press conference. “I have an obligation to be killed in the past two and a half weeks and 75 people were shot with bullets.”

While talking about crime ChicagoTrump often refers to the number of people who may be shot there. But Chicago has a population of about 2.7 million, larger than each of the 15 smallest-popular states. It’s roughly the same as Mississippi. Chicago’s homicide rate in 2024 was 17.5 murders per 100,000 residents, just a few points higher than those in Louisiana and 14.5 points per 100,000 people in 2024.

With tradition, news media Report How many people were killed in Chicago on Labor Day weekend. At Louisiana prices, people are expected to be murdered almost twice as many people over the long weekend.

But these numbers are difficult to calculate. Chicago police reported a character. People have to aggregate a hundred local news sites near Louisiana for comparison.

It is worth noting that Trump discussed sending troops to New Orleans this week. “We’re making a decision right now,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “Whether we go to Chicago or to something like New Orleans, there’s a great governor, Jeff Landry, who wants us to straighten a really good part of the country, and it’s getting really tough, pretty tough, terrible?”

Landry said he was willing to attend. “We will help President Trump in New Orleans!” he wrote on x release Swap clips.

Despite this, Chicago support Become the next city targeted by the Trump administration. So far, 278 people have been killed in Chicago this year, down 118 compared to 2024. The number of deaths this year was 412, which would be about 15 per 100,000 residents. This rate may also be lower than that, as the homicide rate rises in the summer months.

In 2024, Wind City ranked 37th in the homicide rate among cities with more than 50,000 residents in the United States. For cities with over 100,000 residents, it ranks 14th. This year, even if the violence falls to a 60-year low, it is likely to fall on the list.

ones Report In August, the FBI’s crime data unit had a homicide rate of about 4.6 per 100,000 residents in 2024. This is the lowest number since 2014, very close to the generational low of every 100,000 people that was last experienced in the early 1960s. The pandemic wave of increased violence has largely disappeared.

“We know the country [violence is] Fall. “The former Tennessee Police, senior researcher of the Criminal Justice Commission, said Dr. Thaddeus Johnson.

The homicide rate in the United States fell by about 15% in 2024, one of the biggest drops in U.S. history. Most of the reductions can be attributed to declines in the largest cities, Johnson said.

Criminal justice researchers tend to have a higher value to murder rates than other indicators of violent crime, because murder statistics are difficult to manipulate. “This is the most trustworthy data point,” Johnson said. But it’s not the only data point. “When you start talking about serious attacks and robberies, we’re also seeing things across the country.”

Both Chicago and Baltimore implement or expand Anti-Vitoron Project In 2022, use U.S. rescue program funds – most of which are under Trump’s leadership. The homicide rate in Baltimore has dropped by about 40% since 2020, while the homicide rate in 2025 hit a 50-year low.

Violent crimes in Washington, D.C. have also been in Washington, D.C. before Trump took over policing in the city. His announcement last month mentioned the 2023 crime rate in Washington, D.C., which soared during the pandemic while knowing nothing about it.

In January, the Metropolitan Police Department and the U.S. Attorney’s Office Report In 2024, the total violent crime rate in Washington, D.C. fell by 35% from the previous year, marking the lowest rate in more than 30 years.

The guardian analyzed the murder rates in the 50 largest cities in the United States and found that the murder rates in the blue states had the lowest rate and the murder rates per 100,000 people. The murder rate in cities in red states is higher at 12.9. The city of the swing state is located in the middle with a murder rate of 10.2.

Baltimore ranked fifth in more than 50,000 cities by murder rate in 2024, as FBI statisticians reported. Washington, DC ranks 15th. Between them are Wilmington, Delaware; Detroit; Cleveland; Dayton, Ohio; North Little Rock, Arkansas; Kansas City, Missouri; Shreveport, Louisiana; Camden, New Jersey and Albany, Georgia.

Complying with federal rules on crime reporting is incomplete, with some agencies reporting incomplete data. A notable example is Jackson, Mississippi, which has been collecting crime data but has only started submitting it to the FBI system this year. Jackson recorded 111 homicides in 2024, with a population of about 141,000:78.7, with the highest number of cities in the United States with a population of more than 50,000.

Although St. Louis’ homicide rate is the second highest in 2024, violence there has been declining since 2023, down 10% this year. However, as St. Louis loses its population, its speed will drop less dramatically.

Memphis leads the country’s homicide rate in 2023. So far, murders and non-number homicides have dropped by about 25% so far, after a 22% drop in 2024. Like Baltimore, Memphis leaders attributed part of the decline to aggressive gun violence to reduce gun violence, Memphis’s Memphis Allies.

It is worth noting that small changes in smaller cities may have a large statistical effect.

Since the beginning of the year, Birmingham has a population of about 200,000, and its murder rate has been reduced by more than half. Local officials attribute it to a minority of those accused of violence, including Damien McDaniel Hire a killer. His arrest in October – the arrest of four other people who had contact with him – has since dropped 55% in Birmingham.