Climate crisis will increase the frequency of lightning outbreaks of wildfires, research finds | American wildfires

Experts and new research suggest that the climate crisis will continue to make lightning wildfires more frequent over the next few decades, which could have cascading effects and worsen public safety and public health.

Fires that cause lightning often burn in more remote areas and therefore usually grow into larger fires than artificially caused. This means that the tendency to generate more wildfire smoke and help drive may also make wildfires more deadly. Air quality problems surge From the coast to the coast, Especially in the past few years.

Thunderstorms and other weather conditions favoring lightning in the past 40 years Occurs frequently In many parts of the United States, including Western Washington, western Oregon, the central California valley, and higher elevations throughout the Rocky Mountains.

This trend is not only in the United States. This year’s fire season has been The worst in European historypartly by Wildfire caused by lightning in Spain. In Canada, this year’s fires have burned more than 200% of normal forest areas, with the vast majority of which are caused by lightning.

Despite the well-documented fire trends, most climate models are too rough to address how the relationship between lightning and wildfires will change as the climate crisis intensifies.

one New research Released last week, the first to use machine learning technology to solve this problem, while looking at future changes in lightning frequency and changes in weather variables such as air temperature, humidity, wind energy and soil moisture, can predict the possibility of fire spread.

“The overall signal is that we will face greater risk of lightning fire,” said Dmitri Kalashnikov, a climate scientist at the University of California, Seranean Nevada Institute for Nevada.

The findings come as the wildfire season in the United States this year turned to high-end in a similar way to what Kalashnikov imagined in the future — a series of dry thunderstorms torn apart after a series of dry thunderstorms earlier this week.

Thousands of lightning strikes At least 20 new fires were triggered this week in California’s Central Valley and the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Range, and burned tens of thousands of acres. A fire destroyed several structures In the gold rush settlement at a Chinese camp east of Modesto.

Kalashnikov’s team found that some places, such as the Inlland Pacific Northwest, see a surge in lightning, and the overall increase in fire risk is relatively small due to the humid environment. Other places, such as the Southwest Desert, will see an increase in the risk of wildfires without the number of lightning, as the number of lightning changes greatly, due to the increasing general drought overall trend.

Despite these regional differences, the results are clear: In fact, everyone will deal with more wildfire risks in the future. In fact, Kalashnikov’s team found that 98% of the lightning in the western U.S. were “due to more lightning or more fire weather, or both.”

In a world of limited fire resources in the future, the implications of more lightning-causing wildfires are worrying.

In the last 15 years, Wildfire smoke about a thousand people Every year in the United States. The surge in fires that cause lightning could lead to the smoke epidemic in the United States to take potential lives By the middle of this century, there were more than 20,000 people each year.

In addition to the increased risk of wildfires, Kalashnikov’s research also found that the expected increase in thunderstorms and lightning strikes in certain parts of the West may be an increase in flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas that have been burned recently. More lightning-causing fires could also be coated with glaciers in Canada, Greenland and Europe This can make them melt faster.

Due to its distant nature, wildfires that cause lightning also tend to flow emergency response capabilities from urban areas.

Even today, during peak wildfire seasons, a sudden lightning storm “can be really very thin,” says Max Moritz, an adjunct professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, who works to expand wildfires.

“Maybe in a week or two, you might have a big Santa Ana’s style event and then you have a real disaster recipe,” Moritz said.

and Urbanization trends in the field of wildfires What we’re seeing throughout the West is that a world with poor wildfires may put additional pressure on the insurance industry, and that’s digesting Billions of dollars in claims amid the Los Angeles fire this year alone.

In the United States, fire resources across the country extend nationwide as the Trump administration cuts the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Park Service, and many other federal agencies with staff throughout the West. As of late JulyMore than a quarter of all firefighting efforts remain vacant in the U.S. Forest Service Recent Immigration Raid among Active Firefighters In Oregon Firefighters’ morale has been reportedly reduced.

Moritz saw a possible partial solution – changing the way we build cities in areas that are prone to occur.

In addition to developing basic fire safety building regulations, Moritz envisions agricultural buffers around the city that can effectively protect houses and people from encroaching on fire.

“Now, it’s becoming increasingly aware that the amount of water in live fuel, green living branches and leaves is also a real strong control over the fire dynamics,” Moritz said. “That’s what we have in Santa Barbara. We have an existing old agricultural belt, which is relatively thin. Where it still exists, wildfires cannot sweep away national forests and enter communities.”