Putin perseveres, Trump Dithers – Just peace in Ukraine seems to have a long way to go | Olga Chyzh

tOver the past few weeks, he has seen a series of activities known as the progress of the Russian-Ukrainian peace process. However, for Ukrainians, the reality remains the same: Air strikes are still thundering in their city, houses are still burning, lives are still lost. Against this grim backdrop, Russian leader Vladimir Putin seems dissatisfied Literal red classroom treatment Provided by the President of the United States.

Donald Trump anointed the mediator of the war, and he almost exhausted the contradictory dictionary. Sometimes he declares he One can end this war. Then he insisted Peaceful negotiations should be left to both parties. Sometimes he brags about Putin “Respect him”;In other people, he castigig cutin For “absolutely crazy”. This month, Trump placed the U.S. military on the table and Exclude it. It is reported that he is now considering using US Private Military Company Work.

For those who watch it – whether in Kiev, Moscow, Washington or later – the effect is dazzling. Improvisational policy is not a strategy. In a war of living in the credibility that America promises, unpredictability is not power. This is abdication.

So what is Trump doing? Nobel Peace Prize Ambition beside? Did he eventually realize Putin has no interest in a treaty that did not meet its maximum goal? Or is this just another chapter in a familiar script – title chase, image first, later strategy – the cost will not be borne in Washington but on the streets of Kiev?

After a long learning curve, Trump may eventually realize that Putin was playing him—the two were not close friends he once imagined. The threat he repeatedly imposed New sanctions and tariffs This is an example in Russia. However, Trump has also demonstrated his willingness to forgive and forget, again and again, as long as Putin provides a new promise that this time will be different.

Meanwhile, Ukraine seems to have found a direct solution to U.S. military aid, although this is at a huge cost. Through European financing, Kyiv can Keep buying our weapons And Ukraine and the EU have expanded production. It is hardly the best option, but it maintains the status quo: Ukraine survives, Trump claims that US arms profits claim that Europe has put Russia in trouble elsewhere. As long as this arrangement is established, the war will continue. Russia Will continue to attack, but will not defeat Ukraine. Without a real American leadership, the conflict will continue as long as Putin can move forward.

at the same time Ukraine Fighting for survival, Putin is playing a completely different game. He is the winner in this chaos. He was unable to gain the upper hand on the negotiating table due to the victory of the battlefield, so he had fallen on the tools that had served him for decades: obfuscation, manipulation and grinding of the opponents. Putin may not have pinned everything to his wish list, but even without patience, he hasn’t.

Unlike Democratic leaders, Putin did not face the examination – only one inner circle Military and conservative elites and imperialist worldview. For them, Ukraine is not only another territory to barter to help promote Trump’s self. This is the key to restoring Russia’s loss of greatness.

Putin also learned that American audiences yearn for clarity. They quickly get tired of engaging conversations and messy news. Fatigue became Putin’s ally. Boring, phone calls, nowhere to visit – these are not diplomatic failures. They are strategies. Once the war fades from the headlines, his hope is to bargain in the shadows: sanctions lift, helping Ukraine freeze. For Putin, the chaos every hour is an investment. The question is whether the other person on the table has the stamina to pass through it.

The real loser besides Ukraine is Trump himself. Despite all his postures, his ambitions would stop at an Oslo medal and show his own meaning. He imagined more – he could even achieve that. If he ended the war with a clear policy, this could be his Reagan moment: the chance to be celebrated as the savior of the free world.

There is nothing wrong with Trump being too cautious about Joe Biden to claim such a mantle. By comparison, Trump can. Whether Putin respects him personally is controversial, but Putin does respect the U.S. military power. There are some options that many people don’t have a full-scale war: The Graham Blumental Act on Bipartisanexpand air support, increase missile restrictions and significant increase in direct military aid.

Like any dictator, Putin can be coerced. Biden is too timid to test this premise. Trump probably isn’t. Unpredictability is his phone card after all. If Trump forces Putin to retreat and end the war, he will secure his legacy as an unexpected hero. But if he allows Putin to decide the outcome, the crown will fall to Moscow. History will not be a peaceful convener, but an assisted president Russiathe long-term rival of the United States, regained its imperial status while consolidating the decline of American hegemony.