India turns to Moscow and Beijing, it has to do with our spit

Over the past two decades, Washington and New Delhi have established strategic partnerships, hailed as one of the great success stories of post-Cold War diplomacy. Today, the relationship is facing the worst tests over the years – India shows it has other options.

“We are in a situation in the relationship between American Indians, the premises and assumptions of the past 25 years – everyone has worked very hard to establish, including the president during his first term – and just disappeared completely,” said Evan Feigenbaum, South Asia expert who gave international peace. “The trust disappeared.”

New Delhi has turned east significantly since President Trump imposed large tariffs on Indian imports. India’s national security adviser has traveled to Moscow in recent weeks, with its foreign minister visiting this week, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just held talks in Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi Vladimir Putin He is expected to be received in Moscow by the end of the year.

The hub highlights how tariffs on India’s continued purchase of Russian oil may bring New Delhi closer to U.S. competitors.

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Tariffs and rebounds

Trump reached a 25% tariff on India’s imports earlier this year, citing India’s willingness to continue buying Russian crude oil. On August 27, the tariff will double to 50%.

Indian public opinion People are upset by the perceptions that many people think of interfering in sovereign decision-making. “They made it clear that they believed it was an intervention in India’s foreign policy and they would not endure it,” Fedenbaum said.

Despite initial hesitation, state-owned refineries resumed purchases of Russian oil, with a discount of 6-7%. Now, Russian oil accounts for 35% of India’s imports, up from 0.2% before the Ukrainian War. As far as Moscow is concerned, Moscow has occupied the opening ceremony. “We continue to ship fuel, including crude oil and petroleum products, thermal and coking coal,” said Russia’s first deputy prime minister Denis Manturov. “We see the potential for exporting Russian liquefied natural gas.”

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Moscow and Beijing

Russia is using the rift to promote its vision of a “giant Eurasian partnership” for Moscow, Beijing and Delhi ties.

“All this involvement we’re seeing now between India and China is not entirely because of Trump and his tariffs,” said Michael Kugelman, an analyst at South Asia in Washington. “In fact, we’ve seen signs in India for nearly a year, hoping to ease tensions with China and strengthen relations, mainly for economic reasons. But the Trump administration’s policies make India hope to act faster.”

Modi has deepened participation with China and Russia due to U.S. tariffs. (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool via Reuters)

Some of India’s moves are diplomatic theaters aimed at irritating their anger to Washington. But others are more durable. “India will double in some aspects of its economic and defence relations with Russia,” Fedenbaum said. “These parts are not performance.”

Kugelman noted that before the Ukrainian War, India had begun to reduce its dependence on Russian weapons imports, rather than our, French and Israeli systems. “But once the invasion occurs, India quickly starts buying more from Russia, especially energy,” he said. “This is essentially a view of India that the United States cannot be trusted and Russia can- because Russia will always be in India anyway.”

Domestic politics and resistance

Modi used the deadlock to strengthen his image at home and became a defender of sovereignty. “India actually made quite a few concessions to the Trump administration early in its second term,” Kugelman said. “Because of these concessions, India needs to issue a curvy willingness. This is one of the reasons there is no trade deal – Modi lets go.”

Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday after the country reached India with 50% tariffs for buying Kremlin oil. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Modi did not directly criticize Trump, but stressed that his priority is to protect the livelihoods of farmers, small businesses and young workers. Kugelman added that this tone of resistance had a “real political mileage” in India’s domestic debate.

Washington’s frustration

The Trump administration showed no signs of retreat. Peter Navarro, former White House trade adviser Explodes in India’s oil purchases The “opportunism” and “extremely corrosive” in the Financial Times column this week.

“This two-pronged policy will strike India’s pain, namely its opportunity to enter the U.S. market, even if it tries to cut off the financial lifeline, it has expanded to Russia’s war efforts,” Navarro wrote. “If India wants to be seen as a strategic partner of the U.S., it needs to start acting like a person.”

Indian Prime Minister Modi

From nuclear agreement to strategic drift

In sharp contrast to the US-India relations twenty years ago, this is not very distinct. In 2008, the two countries reached a landmark civil nuclear agreement, and although not a signatory to the NPT, India gained the opportunity to U.S. technology and fuel.

“India put the entire government into the deal,” Fedenbaum recalled. “Bush did go to the mat and offered a lot of assurances to Congress, which was not politically easy, but he was willing to take risks for the relationship.”

At the time, Washington and Delhi managed to resolve their differences. “The United States opposes many aspects of India’s relations with Iran, Myanmar and Russia,” Fagenbaum said. “India opposes all aspects of the U.S. relations with China and Pakistan. However, both sides bring it back into bilateral relations in a completely debilitating way.”

Can quadrilaterals survive?

For years, the United States has viewed India as a democratic counterweight on the example of Chinese dictatorship, the heart of the Indo-Pacific strategy under Obama, Trump and Biden. But now the question is whether the glue still exists.

“Both sides agree that opposition to China is the main glue that really tied this relationship together during this 20-year period,” Kugman said. “But most tensions, on the trade side, have begun to spread to a wider partnership.”

He noted that India will continue to see China as a long-term competitor due to border disputes and Beijing’s alliance with Pakistan. “These realities make it hard to imagine that India no longer sees China as a threat,” he said. “So the reason for the quadrilateral remains. But if the U.S.-India relations continue this free fall, it will be difficult to maintain.”

Negotiations on new defense cooperation are still on the calendar. But, for now, Kugman warns that trust has eroded: “You talk about defense cooperation, intelligence sharing – it takes a lot of trust. Given what has happened in the past few months, it may be harder to sell for Indians.”

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New signals from India

Feigenbaum believes that India’s latest move is a reversal of past dynamics. “Then, India is using its partnership to signal China at the time,” he said. “Now, they are working with the Chinese to signal Washington, not the other way around.”

The message is clear: India will pursue its interests in its own meaning, even if it means approaching its competitors in the United States.