European and US trade agreements died upon arrival – required burial. Here’s how to do it | George Richles and Valger Folklore

youRsula von der Leyen’s Turnberry Golf Course is trading correctly Called surrender and humiliation towards Europe. Assuming such a deal will end Donald Trump’s coercion, bullying is naive, or caused by delusion. The EU should now steel itself and refuse Terms implemented by Trump.

Is this deal really bad? Unfortunately, for at least three reasons.

In a world where the EU is expected to support reciprocity and rule-based trade, the blow to Europe’s international credibility is immeasurable As CanadaChina and Brazil do not, rather than tolerate it.

Economically, it is a destructive one-way street: EU exporters lose access to the market in the United States, and the EU market is hit by a more favored U.S. competition. European core industrial sectors (such as pharmaceuticals, steel and aluminum) are left by the curb. In important sectors such as consumer goods, food and beverages, and agriculture, the U.S. balance has also tilted. tariff Inclined to persist, so this is long-term damage. The EU has even waived its right to deal with future U.S. pressure by responsibilities for digital services or network expenses.

Most importantly, Von der Leyen’s defense and investment commitments (she has no authorization) violated European interests. The EU’s competitiveness dilemma is precisely one of the net investments Leak out. Europe becomes a case as international capital now regroups under pressure from Trump studies and the weakened dollar Strategic investment capabilities Strengthening. Von der Leyen’s Commitment EU invests $600 billion Therefore, it is disastrous messaging in the United States.

How could this happen? All EU members want to avoid Trump’s 30% tariff threat and a trade war, but with the support of big German and American tech companies, nothing is as numerous as Germany and Ireland. However, the Irish Sweetheart Digital Tax Agreement and BMW and Mercedes plans Mobile Production Center For the United States (also serving the EU market), it cannot be the future of Europe.

The EU government is obviously useless in construction EU negotiating position. But in the end, Von der Leyen blinked and she had to take responsibility. Her close-range team was under control in the closing ceremony and attended the final meeting, which was obviously ready to say yes, which made Trump’s crackdown inevitable.

Remind us of the counterfactual: If Von der Leyen enters the room and rejects these terms, then Trump’s anger and some market turmoil may follow. But ultimately, it is likely to delay new negotiations, and at some point another deal is less prejudiced or unilateral trade, but it eliminates Europe’s deep and long-term European interests and principles. Instead, Von der Leyen became the pleader for the victorious Trump.

The situation is reminiscent of Brexit negotiations Five years ago, when von der Leyen similarly succumbed to Boris Johnson’s unacceptable demands, but turned around under pressure from the EU’s chief competition host, and the member quartet.

Today, Von der Leyen runs the Brussels on a powerful Presidential Avenue and conducts internal checks and balances within the committee. That’s her privilege and style, but the major geopolitical challenge in Europe from Trump to Gaza should not be weak, ineffective and accessible deals.

The “deal” in Scotland is actually an unstable temporary agreement. No ink or signature; Washington and Brussels are already locked in corners Its explanation Negotiations are underway for better (and broader) . The 27 EU governments will inevitably participate, as the final transaction needs to be translated into international agreements and EU law. Some of the great powers (which seem to be Germany and Italy) seem to be on board, unwilling or not. However, internal political dynamics may change their calculations. Opposition and right-wing competitors are real political threats to German and French leaders, and have slammed the deal.

Unless Von der Leyen engages in dirty bargaining with member states, the European Parliament will also have a say. Bernd Lange, long-time chairman of its Trade Commission, set the tone for how the deal is viewed there, calling it “Asymmetrical stone“Even”pain“. As details seep out what Von der Leyen really agreed on and what the U.S. expectation for the EU becomes clear and what would otherwise be impossible deals could become even more so.

weakened U.S. economic data and Return to stock market jitters It shows that Trump’s negotiation foundation is fragile. his New tariff threats As Mexico’s position is overstretched, it takes up to 90 days of new extensions. For Europe, the course on Brexit negotiations – one that Von der Leyen should have mastered before this – was not reached until everything was agreed. Now, the EU government and the European Parliament will have a chance to correct and save something from this train wreckage.