I think the result is that if the next wave continues to grow as expected, Republicans will establish a modest advantage in the House. I’m going to say that Democrats will have to win the popular vote at least two to three points in order to clearly be won, rather than today, if they win the popular vote, you should assume they might have the upper hand.
When you look at the total seats for the party target, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win all of them. And, since Republicans are primarily on the offensive, that means Democrats make it easier than some reports. Texas is a great example.
What does that mean?
Republicans targeted five seats, but two of them were a little red, but no longer so red that they were no longer competitive. This is not to say that Republicans have not hurt democratic opportunities in these areas, but for Democrats, these maps are not as challenging as you hear Republicans “add five seats.”
If these changes happen, you say Democrats will need to win the House vote in a few points. I don’t think this is unlikely because it’s a teenage election for the Republican president.
Yes, I think it would be surprising and disappointing for the party if the Democrats fail to win the popular vote with two to three points next November. It’s hard for them to turn around and blame their plight for re-division. Strictly speaking, this is true. They could have won. But I think that given that Donald Trump’s approval rating is as bad as they do, they should reasonably expect them and therefore should be positioned better than that. Currently, Democrats have increased about four points in the general poll. So if the election is held today, the Democrats will still be regarded as a favorite.
Do general polls usually deviate or stay away from the current party in the second year of the deviation cycle?
They tend to move towards political parties toward power. But Donald Trump is no longer popular. So that would at least give me a little pause of whether Democrats have enough room to improve their status, such as Republicans in the summer of 2009, when Barack Obama’s approval rate was still in the mid-fifties and there was still a full nine-month struggle to achieve the affordable care bill. But, in general, the public has gradually tended to vote for him as the president takes more action.
There is a voting right law case This will appear in the Supreme Court next month. My understanding is that this may have a greater impact on the house than the re-division war that has taken place in the past few months. Is that what you understand?
That is absolutely correct. The Voting Rights Act case could create many or more seats in the southern region, where Republicans have complete control over the rezoning process, and the only reason Democrats have full seats is that these seats are protected by the Voting Rights Act. If you add eight seats to Republican Tally in the South – it’s worth noting that these will be safe Republican seats, not potentially competitive seats, then we’re talking about Democrats need to win a popular vote with five or six points. That’s what Democrats really have the potential to achieve a decisive election victory without having a chance to retake the house, or just retake it.
In this case, it is controversial whether the Voting Rights Act requires states to map so-called minority majority areas where racially polarized voting patterns exist and where minority groups exist in compact places. So, for example, in a place like Tennessee, the only Democratic seat is the seat in Memphis, where there are a large black population, where there are a large number of racial polarized votes. If the Tennessee Legislature is free to do so, like in Nashville, they could easily divide Memphis into many Republican-oriented areas. But because of the Voting Rights Act, they cannot do so.
Why were they able to do this in Nashville?
Black people have a smaller population. If the court does what Democrats fear, then the number of black voters in the deep South will fall, and Republicans will gain a greater structural advantage in the House.
Let’s turn to Trump. In the 2024 election, Trump demonstrated his political strength, he did not show up in 2020 and certainly did not show up in 2016. He has gained more support among non-white groups and his control over the party seems to be more complete. But depending on his approval rate, era Currently accounting for 43%, it seems we have returned to most of his first semester. Is that what you feel?
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