Trump tariffs are reshaping the old coalition as Global South orchestrates its own path | Trump tariffs

Their discussions are strengthened as the response of the global southern countries Donald TrumpTrade War, tariff advocate for British advocates in the early 20th century Joseph Chamberlain There may be some courses to be carried.

Like Trump, Chamberlain saw tariffs as a cure and argued that the empire’s preferences – with the British Empire’s preferential interest rate system – could not only enhance the nation’s own interests, but also act as glue that bonds to the British colonial union.

Chamberlain’s brother Austen argued: “Through this mutual trade, we can strengthen our shared interests, we can increase the power of the network between the various parts of the empire, and we can make our interests so inseparable that when stress and the days and judgments are stressed and judged, no one can think of separation, not dreaming of such intimate bonds and such intimate bonds for all who care about it”.

By contrast, Trump initially did not seem to see tariffs as a means to cultivate any network or alliance. Quite the contrary – they became the original reassessment of the dominance of the U.S. economy, aiming to correct the historical trade imbalance of the U.S.

In most cases, it seems to work – in his ability to pick the vulnerable U.S. – reliance on economies forces them to lower tariffs or invest in the U.S. economy with a vague commitment.

But over the past few months, Trump’s strategy has begun to produce a clear political response. It is too early to claim that tariffs have led to a full political adjustment, but boycotts shown by Brazil, Russia, India and China in recent weeks suggest that Trump may generate tariffs in the medium term, based on the belief that power is imposed in the U.S. economy, which could create a resistance axis.

Otherwise, untamed by the organization, Trump’s tariff diplomacy will not only weaken their economy, but also destroy their sovereignty.

The Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a recent call that his Brazilian rival, Luiz Inácio Lulada Silva, said in a recent call that his country is in a state of full-scale attack, facing a 50% commodity tariff, part of a broad attack on Brazil’s attack on Brazil, which blends trade, politics and even personal revenge.

“We must unite and clearly oppose unilateralism and protectionism,” XI said.

Lula also spoke on the phone with Trump’s anger, Narendra Modi and other victims of Vladimir Putin. Modi, once regarded as Trump’s great security ally, now faces 50% tariffs starting August 27. He will visit China for the first time in seven years next month and negotiate to resume flights and increase trade after years of tensions.

Lula summed up new pragmatism. “We will continue to sell [our products] …If the United States doesn’t want to buy it [from us]we will find new partners. “He said. “The world is big and eager to do business with Brazil. ”

Trump is now using the global South to deepen the rift with Trump as U.S. tariffs (all of which are implemented by a highly questionable presidential executive order with legal authority) are not only to “rebalance” the US has experienced a $118 million regular trade deficit, or to ask the state to fund Trump so that Trump can invest in the U.S.

Trump now uses tariffs to impose his political will on issues that are completely unrelated to trade. Although President Claudia Sheinbaum denied any link between the two issues, Mexico has taken a series of actions against organized crime in its attempt to resist the threatened 30% tariff. India believes that doubled the tariffs to 50% are unfair punishment for increasing discounts on buying Russian oil. Trump believes that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to recognize the Palestinian state makes it “hard” to reach a trade agreement with Canada.

In Brazil, Trump is trying to block a “witch hunt” for former President Jair Bolsonaro, thus challenging the rights of the Brazilian Supreme Court to determine whether Bolsonaro attempts to coup at the end of his term. As part of the campaign, he also approved Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and demanded the lifting of the planned restrictions on U.S. social media companies.

Therefore, in many cases, Trump attempted to use his U.S. economic leverage not only to promote U.S. economic interests, but also to trample on national sovereignty.

The threat of refusing to enter the great American consumer has become his preferred diplomatic weapon, repeatedly waving the weapons on the head of any stubborn foreign government.

But more and more victims are discussing whether to continue prosecuting peace amid Trump’s escalating and changing needs – at the risk of a person being picked by one – or whether they can somehow pass through FIFA’s shelter, a shelter in 10 countries, a shelter in 10 countries, to achieve it as a confrontation against the Western G7.

After all, all BRICS economies now have about 4.5 billion people, more than 55% of the global population. The foundation group also accounts for 37.3% of the global GDP based on purchasing power equilibrium.

The key question is whether the tariffs and political demands that accompany them will force the group’s character to change – until now, an ideologically disjointed group that includes countries that are hostile to China and countries traditionally friendly to the United States (such as India and Brazil).

Lula’s mind seems to be developing, finding herself riding a wave of domestic nationalism driven by the anger of Trump’s repeated interventions.

Until recently, Lula had hoped that Brazil’s special brands could fly under Trump’s radar, said Oliver Stuenkel, associate professor at the São Paulo School of International Relations. Furthermore, all of Lula’s left-wing politics are unwilling to make China turn the BRICS countries into a clear anti-Western coalition against the group’s expansion, including countries including Iran.

But facing Trump’s request, Lula must recalibrate. “This makes Brazil more convinced of the need to diversify and have BRICS countries. It intensifies the need to find new friends and meet as many friends as possible,” Stuenkel said.

“Political and diplomatically, I think China is a huge winner in these tariffs,” said Matias Spektor, professor of politics and international relations at the Fundação Getulio Vargas in Brazil.

Lula also assumes the reasons for bypassing the dollar, a long-standing goal of China that has actually been hardly achieved in the past two decades. “Brazil cannot rely on the dollar, and the BRICS countries need to test whether it can own a trade currency,” he said earlier this month.

Lula said: “I have no obligation to trade with countries like Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Sweden, the EU or China. We can use our own currency. Why do I want to be associated with the US dollar, which is a currency that I do not control? This is the currency that the US dollar prints,” Lula said.

Currently, Brazil is reasonably boycotting Trump’s tariffs. The United States absorbs only 12% of Brazil’s total exports, down from 24% in 2000. China is Brazil’s largest market, adopting $9.4 billion in products last year, including iron ore, soybeans and beef.

However, Brazilian industries such as coffee oil, seafood, textiles, footwear and fruit will take a hit and provide emergency government credit lines when seeking alternative markets.

UBS BB analysts believe it is possible that it is even possible to export three-quarters of Brazil to the U.S. exports, an estimate suggests that the potential hit to economic growth is only up to 0.6%.

India, the world’s fourth largest economy, is also facing pressure to choose one side.

It insists that it has a big enough economy to resist Trump, and Modi also believes that he has no choice but to stick to protecting the produce of his small farmers, a primary goal of U.S. trade negotiators. However, it was an unusual shift, with India finding itself dealing with higher U.S. tariff rates than China.

Amid the potential straw in the wind, Indian government think tank niti aayog proposed simplified foreign direct investment rules, which require additional scrutiny of Chinese companies.

Another key test will be whether China can join the Trans-Pacific Partnership Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the successor of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was the agreement that was made by Donald Trump 2017. Beijing applied to join in 2021, but it was unable to do so due to Tokyo’s firm opposition and other people who were keen to avoid resolving the Taiwan issue, which also submitted its application.

This week, the two countries continued to strengthen their ties, announcing that they would resume direct flights, promote visas and strengthen trade, as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited New Delhi.

There is no doubt that Trump’s tariff war will be staged. Currently, Trump has won in the EU, Japan and South Korea, adding that the U.S. Treasury Department is raising billions of dollars in additional revenue. Inflation hasn’t disappeared in the way some predicted it either, but it’s a long war in which the front lines are only drawn slowly. It would be an ironic irony if Liberation Day would eventually isolate the United States from the rest of the world by inspiring all other countries to trade with each other.

So this would be the opposite of Chamberlain’s intention to favor the empire.