Tesla’s Robotaxi launch is here: What to expect

After years of delays and bold commitments, Tesla is preparing to launch its first robotics service in Austin, Texas on June 22 – although the launch will be More limited and cautious CEO Elon Musk once imagined it.

The pilot’s release is not a truly autonomous debut, but a strict control test with serious investor influence. The launch will reportedly involve only the 10-20 model Y SUV running within the geographic coverage area of ​​Austin, with each vehicle carrying a human “safety monitor” in the front passenger seat. Tesla has also set up a remote operation team to monitor and intervene remotely (if needed). The service will be invited at the launch conference, and Tesla selects influencers, investors and clients to attend.

The ride will be available from 6 a.m. to midnight, but the robot will not go around: Airport travel is a no-stop, and the route will avoid complicated intersections. Services may also be suspended in bad weather. Tesla said the goal is to gradually expand the program while closely monitoring security, a major concern for regulators and lawmakers.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is still investigating Tesla’s complete autonomous driving (FSD) software, which has been linked to dozens of crashes and at least 13 people. Critics argue that Tesla’s marketing around FSD has exaggerated the system’s capabilities, which still requires frequent human intervention and does not meet the industry standard definition of autonomous driving.

In Texas, state lawmakers have formally asked Tesla to postpone the launch until the rules governing operation of self-driving cars take effect on September 1. So far, the company has not said it would delay its launch.

Musk had previously said that Tesla will have 1 million robots on the road by 2020, and he has admitted that the launch in June this year will not be completely autonomous. He described the promotion as an “early channel” phase and said the company is “super” to security – warning that the June 22 date could be delayed as a result. He also laughed at the separate demonstrations later this month, where Tesla will drive from the factory to the customer’s home by June 28.

Wall Street is paying close attention and betting heavily.

Tesla stock has grown nearly 45% since April, partly due to Robotaxi’s enthusiasm and Musk’s refocus on AI. Wedbush analysts predict that Tesla can expand its Robotaxi service to 25 U.S. cities in one year. Wedbush’s managing director, Tesla Bull Dan Ives, said in a Friday note that Tesla’s “$1 trillion autonomy era” will begin with Sunday’s launch.

“Let’s take a step back and we see this autonomous chapter as one of the most important chapters in Musk and Tesla in their history… Just as we believe Tesla’s AI future is worth $1 trillion in the next few years,” Ives wrote. “There are countless skeptics about Tesla’s robotics vision, and many bears think that the day will never come, and now it’s about Musk and Tesla creating the foundation for this automatic growth, the foundation for the coming years, and it all begins on Sunday at Sixth Street in Austin.”

Still, Tesla’s stock has fallen nearly 24% so far in the past six months, with 16% so far making other analysts even more suspicious. Some at Barclays and Baird warned that Tesla’s software would still drag on competitors, such as Alphabet’s Waymo and Amazon’s Zoox (which already offers fully driverless rides in multiple cities with more mature software stacks), and said Tesla’s Robotaxi Hype could offer companies another reality test if there are real-life tests if there are real-life tests.

Tesla’s promotion is that its approach will eventually scale faster than anyone else. Millions of Tesla people who are already on the road are recording miles and feeding data to the company’s AI. Tesla uses vision-only software, while competitors rely on lidar and radar sensors and stick to pre-mapping routes, thus expanding the city methodically. But scale cannot guarantee autonomy.

Meanwhile, the competition is on tour.

Waymo’s fully driverless robots have been running in parts of Phoenix, San Francisco and Los Angeles, with their belts without human monitors and millions of realities for miles. Zoox is testing the vehicle built for purpose and has no steering wheel at all. GM’s self-driving division Cruise has rebooted after a series of safety scandals but plans to return to the streets later this year.

Compared to these players, Tesla’s model Y robot (with front-seat nanny) looks more like a Beta test than a breakout.

Still, if Tesla can perform a smooth (if modest) launch, this could be the first real proof point for Musk’s ambitious move to shift the company from automakers to AI platforms – he’s described as “change” to Tesla’s valuation. The company bets that it will not sell its vehicles to drivers in the future, but to sell its Robotaxi rides to passengers and to sell its data itself to passengers. If it works, Tesla can lead the packaging. If that isn’t the case, it would be another missed milestone in a neutral legend.

By June 22, we will find out which side of Tesla’s robot road will land.